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Advances in Astrophysics
AdAp > Volume 4, Number 2, May 2019

Periods in Solar Activity

Download PDF  (1271.8 KB)PP. 47-60,  Pub. Date:May 27, 2019
DOI: 10.22606/adap.2019.42001

Author(s)
Amy L. Potrzeba-Macrina, Igor G. Zurbenko
Affiliation(s)
Syracuse University, Department of Mathematics, 215 Carnegie Building, Syracuse, NY 13244, USA
University at Albany, Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, 1 University Place, Rensselaer, NY 12144, USA
Abstract
Solar activity has a well-known periodicity of approximately 10-11 years, an oscillation that was first observed in China several thousand years ago. The purpose of this paper is to explain the driving force behind this periodicity and to explain other periodicities inherent to solar activities. In science, spectral analysis is an essential tool used for the identification of periodicities that are natural to a given dataset. In this paper the authors use spectral analysis to investigate planetary gravitational periods to explain periodicities of sunspot numbers and to make conclusions about the driving force of the sunspot numbers and solar activity. Precise analysis of inherent periodicities provides the capability to predict future fluctuations in solar activities. The authors show clear evidence of long periodicities within sunspot numbers. The combination of several periodic components, while complex, remains perfectly predictable. The authors show that the long-term component of sunspot fluctuations is perfectly proportional to the total solar irradiation near Earth measured by satellites. While satellite measurements of the total solar irradiance cover a short time interval, sunspot numbers have been recorded for a long time and essentially have more value on the prediction of solar influence on Earth’s climate. This allows for the numerical evaluation of solar energy delivered to Earth. Numerical evaluations of fluctuations in solar energies delivered to Earth are an essential achievement for any climate change analysis. The removal of solar influences from long-term temperature data provides the opportunity to numerically identify the human impact on Earth’s climate. A better understanding and prediction of the Sun’s long oscillations may influence important predictions of climatic events and impact emergency preparedness.
Keywords
difference frequency, spectrum of sunspots, planet periods, extreme weather events, solar radiation
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