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Journal of Advanced Statistics
JAS > Volume 1, Number 4, December 2016

Forecasting Potato Production in Bangladesh by ARIMA Model

Download PDF  (291.8 KB)PP. 191-198,  Pub. Date:December 19, 2016
DOI: 10.22606/jas.2016.14002

Author(s)
Md. Moyazzem Hossain, Faruq Abdulla
Affiliation(s)
Department of Statistics, Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Dhaka-1342, Bangladesh
Department of Statistics, Islamic University, Kushtia-7003, Bangladesh
Abstract
Bangladesh is recognized as a rice-eating nation; nevertheless, large quantities of potatoes are produced and consumed each year. In Bangladesh, potato has gradually gained popularity. Potato is used as food crop as well as vegetable by both the poor and rich people. Recently, the government has been trying to diversify food habits and encourage potato consumption to reduce pressure on rice. In this regard, potato can play an important role as an alternative and a multipurpose food crop of Bangladesh. This study considered the published secondary data of yearly potato production in Bangladesh over the period 1971 to 2013. The best selected Box-Jenkins ARIMA model for forecasting the potato production for whole Bangladesh is ARIMA(0,2,1). The comparison between the original series and forecasted series shows that the fitted model behaved statistically well and is suitable to forecast the potato productions in Bangladesh.
Keywords
Potato, time series analysis, forecasting, Bangladesh.
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